Netanyahu's War for Political Survival
The four factors shaping Netanyahu's war strategy, scripted 19 November 2024
With President-elect Trump reportedly demanding Prime Minister Netanyahu end Israel’s wars before he takes office, one battle looks set to continue with no end in sight: Netanyahu’s war for political survival.
There are four key factors affecting Netanyahu’s approach: debate over Israeli hostages held in Gaza; institutions upholding national security and the rule of law in Israel; the ultra-orthodox military draft; and settler movements in the occupied Palestinian territories.
Hostage Deal
Netanyahu’s office is already under fire after a senior aide was accused of leaking a military document aiming to ‘skew the hostage deal debate’. The scandal came amid mounting frustration at the government’s failure to secure a deal following the murder of six captives in Gaza in September.
The document’s release allegedly aimed to make it seem as though it were Hamas’ fault that a deal had not been reached and that a hostage deal would only help the group, shifting public pressure for a deal away from the government.
Nearly 70% of Israelis support a deal, even if it means ending the war in Gaza. Security chiefs have told Netanyahu that softening his stance on the war was the only way to get the hostages back.
But the Prime Minister insisted that Israel’s military would not prematurely end the war or leave the strip and risk a restrengthened Hamas returning to power. Bezalel Smotrich, the government’s outspoken Finance Minister and leader of the Religious Zionism Party, vowed to occupy northern Gaza until the release of all hostages and elimination of Hamas.
However, many have doubted whether the hostages, weakened by malnutrition and prolonged captivity, will be able to survive another winter, urging the government to act before it is too late.
If the ongoing investigation finds Netanyahu responsible for the forged documents leak, or more hostages die in Gaza, it could renew pressure both for a hostage deal and the Prime Minister’s resignation.
Rule of Law
In the meantime, Netanyahu’s government is racing to extend political control over state institutions, primarily the legal system and security agencies.
Last week, the government backed a bill creating a “devil’s advocate” unit reporting directly to the Prime Minister that oversees intelligence bodies, able to challenge their policy recommendations and demand additional intel.
The government also approved term limits for legal advisors to government ministries — part of last year’s stalled judicial overhaul — forcing advisers of over seven years to retire within 90 days.
Both Smotrich and Ben Gvir have clashed with their legal advisors, whom they accuse of obstructing government policy. Ben Gvir’s police commissioner has previously attempted to dismiss the force’s legal advisor.
Israel’s Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara strongly opposes these moves – prompting several senior ministers to call on Netanyahu to fire her.
The Prime Minister “is no longer ruling out [her] dismissal”, according to Ynet.
The pair currently disagree over Minister Ben Gvir, whom she has accused of politicising the country’s police and handing out guns to civilians without authority,. They also disagree on Netanyahu’s own fitness for office in light of the numerous legal charges against him.
If the Prime Minister fires her, it could violate the conflict of interest agreement he signed upon taking office two years ago, creating the potential for significant backlash.
If she remains in power, she would oversee Netanyahu’s upcoming corruption trial, set to begin in under 2 weeks.
Netanyahu is stuck: to pass key policies related to the Haredim and settler communities, and avoid further legal investigation, he needs to take control of key state bodies. But trying to do so could get him into more trouble.
Haredim draft
One key policy disagreement between the government and the Attorney General is whether ultra-Orthodox Jews should be drafted into the military.
Their legal exemption from the draft ended in June, but the government has still tried to prevent the passage of a large-scale draft – despite the army urgently needing another 10,000 soldiers, according to the General Staff’s Manpower Directorate.
Attempts to draft Haredim have largely failed. Out of 3,000 draft orders issued to Haredi men during the summer, under 10% actually showed up.
The issuance of the first 1,000 out of 7,000 new enlistment orders on Sunday once again prompted protestors to block major highways while prominent religious figures and media outlets in the ultra-Orthodox community spoke out.
Haaretz newspaper has argued that Israel is entering ceasefire talks in Lebanon partly to redirect military manpower to Gaza and avoid drafting more Haredim.
But why is Israel’s military spending so long in Gaza, after Netanyahu’s own former Defense Minister and military Chief of Staff said there was no reason to stay there?
Settlements
Referring to the unprecedented attack of 7 October, senior Israeli officials have argued for the creation of ‘military buffer zones’ in both north Gaza and Area C of the occupied West Bank, which could replace Palestinian residential areas with Jewish settlements.
On Sunday, Israel’s cabinet discussed a bill allowing settlers to purchase land in the West Bank directly without oversight or restrictions, rather than going through the state’s Civil Administration, speeding up the process of creating new settlements.
While Palestinians are being forcibly displaced from north Gaza in a process many have warned could amount to ethnic cleansing, fears have grown that the area may become an attractive target for a reinvigorated settler movement.
Popular pro-settlement figure Daniella Weiss – credited for leading the movement to settle the occupied West Bank – claimed last weekend to have toured north Gaza to pick 40 settlement locations for families of the ‘Gush Katif’ movement (which Israel’s army denied).
But Haaretz noted Israel’s army is building permanent infrastructure in Gaza, including wide roads and military outposts, water and sewage systems, cellular and electricity networks, suggesting a long-term occupation from which settlements could grow.
CONCLUSION
Those guessing what might happen in Lebanon or Gaza by pointing to Hezbollah or Hamas are missing a key part of the picture: the Israeli government’s domestic challenges.
Demands to release hostages and avoid drafting Haredi Jews have created pressure to end Israel’s wars.
But dodging legal troubles and rewarding the settlement movement requires drawing out the ongoing war into a long-term occupation.
A ceasefire in Lebanon could refocus the military on long-term control of Gaza. In the meantime, weakening Israel’s justice system could enable Netanyahu to hold on until Trump gets to power and fixes the rest.